If you've had a roofing quote recently and felt your stomach drop, you're not imagining it. A Verisk analysis reported by Bay News 9 on September 28 found that the average US roof replacement cost 33% more in 2025 than the average of the previous four years, and it's projected to rise another 4% to 6% this year.
"Roof replacement" is one of the steadiest roof searches on Google in the US, and fall is when many homeowners act, before winter storms find the weak spots. Here's what's pushing prices up, and the one thing you can do before you call anyone: know your roof's size.
Why roofs cost more now
The roofers and economists quoted by Bay News 9 point to a stack of pressures:
- Shingles are petroleum-based, so higher oil prices raise material costs.
- Energy and fuel costs push up manufacturing and delivery.
- Tariffs affect metal roofing and lumber imported from Canada (decking and framing).
- Shipping costs more for materials made overseas.
A University of Tampa economist described it as a "perfect storm." None of that is in your control. How well you compare quotes is.
Roofers count in "squares"
Roofing is priced by the square: 100 square feet of roof surface. Standard asphalt shingles come 3 bundles to a square. If you know how many squares your roof has, you can:
- check that each quote is for roughly the same amount of material
- compare price per square instead of comparing totals
- spot a quote that's padded (or one that's suspiciously thin)
How to measure without climbing up
You don't need a ladder for a good estimate:
- Measure the house footprint from the outside, including the overhangs if you can (or add about 1 ft per side).
- Find the pitch: how many inches the roof rises for every 12 in it runs. Many roofs are between 4/12 and 8/12. Your roofer, or a phone level app held against a rafter in the attic, can tell you.
- Multiply the footprint by the pitch factor. A sloped roof has more surface than the flat footprint under it.
| Pitch | Multiply footprint by |
|---|---|
| 4/12 | 1.054 |
| 6/12 | 1.118 |
| 8/12 | 1.202 |
| 12/12 | 1.414 |
Example: a 50 × 30 ft house (1,500 sq ft footprint) with a 6/12 roof has about 1,677 sq ft of roof, or 16.8 squares. With 10% extra for cuts, ridges and starter rows, that's 56 bundles of shingles.
Fun fact: Pitch matters more than people expect. Put that same 1,500 sq ft house under a steep 12/12 roof and the surface grows to about 2,121 sq ft, which is 41% more than the footprint. That's 21.2 squares and 71 bundles, before anyone has added a single dormer. Put your own house into the roofing calculator and see your squares, bundles, underlayment, nails and drip edge in one list.
What to ask every roofer
When the quotes come in, make sure each one answers the same questions:
- How many squares are you pricing, and what waste allowance?
- Tear-off: how many existing layers are being removed, and is disposal included?
- Decking: what's the price per sheet if rotten decking is found?
- Underlayment and flashing: synthetic underlayment? Ice and water shield at the eaves and valleys? New drip edge and flashing, or reused?
- Warranty: what does the manufacturer cover, and what does the installer cover (and for how long)?
- Permits and cleanup: included or extra?
A quote that's much cheaper per square usually differs on one of these lines, not on the shingles.
Sources
- Bay News 9: Rising roofing costs put pressure on contractors (Sept. 28, 2026)
- Google Trends, US, past 90 days: "roof replacement," "roof inspection" and related roof searches (checked October 15, 2026)